Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 52.4%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto29 giu 25, 08:16 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketTop Chinese AI Company week of September 7th
KalshiWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
tweet: https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123
- Gary makes the following predictions:
- The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).
- Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).
- Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.
Mercati aperti
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 11,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7K €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume totale
- 356,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5K €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume totale
- 2,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 11K €
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 52% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029??
- Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: tweet: https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123