By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
One-OffIA3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 88.9%
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Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto16 set 22, 20:34 UTC1 gen 30, 08:00 UTC
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The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?
- By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things