In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 56.5%
Previsori
119
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 31 minuti fa
16 set 22, 20:37 UTC1 gen 30, 08:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Manifold MarketsBy 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsBy 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegole
The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things
- The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark)."
- Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.
- Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The AI can perform about as well as a good human cook in most kitchens
- It does not require the kitchen to be reorganized for its use
