Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
One-OffIA4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 79.9%
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto29 mar 25, 20:45 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?
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PolymarketRegole
https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax
- This is obviously a very ambiguous and subjective question, I'd rather have an imperfect market than none
- Close date extends indefinitely until the answer to this is clear.
- "Central" is a high bar.
- Example: Inventing a better interpretability tool or a better method of reinforcement learning isn't enough to resolve this market YES, even if they're genuinely better than the alternatives and everyone adopts them.
- The most central YES resolution is is if their "organic alignment" works and is adopted by everyone, but it being a part of a future widely adopted alignment solution, or being widely accepted by AI safety as an important alignment innovation but not used, would work too.