Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
TecnologiaScienza3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeIBM 26.5%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 25, 08:58 UTC1 gen 30, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029.
- A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1.
- Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2.
- First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3.
- Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted.
- The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.
