Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 96.1%
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto18 gen 24, 08:23 UTC31 dic 26, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsIs Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Eliezer Yudkowsky has been a leading voice in AI alignment for years, but has never done any work directly for a major AI company or organization.
- Will that change by 2027?
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 96% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027??
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Eliezer Yudkowsky has been a leading voice in AI alignment for years, but has never done any work directly for a major AI company or organization.