Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
No 63.6%
Previsori
62
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto24 set 23, 01:46 UTC2 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky and Aella have a child by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner.
- This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience.
- For example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions.
- Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question.
- If I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES.
- Otherwise it resolves to NO.
