Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 98.7%
Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto8 ago 23, 15:19 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump serve time?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsArrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurRegole
Resolves YES if Trump is placed under house arrest as a result of a criminal conviction or as a result of a plea deal.
- Resolution is based on when he actually begins being under house arrest, not when it is announced.
- Resolves NO otherwise on January 1st, 2027.
Mercati aperti
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 693K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9K €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027??
- Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if Trump is placed under house arrest as a result of a criminal conviction or as a result of a plea deal.