Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?
PoliticaOne-OffCrime & Justice3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 88.7%
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto8 nov 23, 17:29 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Carles Puigdemont was elected president of Catalonia by parliamentary vote in 2016, approving an illegal referendum on independence from Spain that was held in 2017.
- The resulting constitutional crisis in the imposition of direct rule over Catalonia by the Spanish central government and the arrest of Catalan politicians involved in the referendum.
- Carles Puigdemont fled the country and currently resides in Belgium.
- Recently, Spain's Socialist Party leader Pedro Sánchez is trying to form a government with support from Catalan parties, who "have demanded an amnesty for several hundred Catalan politicians and activists who face legal action mainly for activities linked to a failed bid to secede from Spain in 2017." (BBC)
- Sánchez has "agreed with ERC on the content of the amnesty bill" and "among those who would benefit from the law is Carles Puigdemont."
- This question resolves YES so long as there is any date before 2030 in which Carles Puigdemont is in Catalonia and is a "free man." I take being "free" to mean that he is not under arrest, in jail, or in prison, has no charges against him related to the 2017 referendum or other charges that are politically motivated, and is in no other significant way unfree.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 89% al 20 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030??
- Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Carles Puigdemont was elected president of Catalonia by parliamentary vote in 2016, approving an illegal referendum on independence from Spain that was held in 2017.