Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 90.3%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto10 gen 26, 06:31 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen, where or how will Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?
KalshiHeidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
PolymarketWill a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if former President Joe Biden dies at any point during 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death.
- The market resolves NO if Biden survives through December 31, 2026.
- Biden was born on November 20, 1942, making him 83 years old as of January 2026.
- He became the first president to turn 80 years old while in office.
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mld €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 altri esiti
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-33.7pt51%
- Delcy Rodríguez+29.5pt42%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 altri esiti
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Volume totale
- 29,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 621,6K €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Volume totale
- 19,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 488,8K €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.3pt10%
+1 altri esiti
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Former president Biden dead in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 19 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Former president Biden dead in 2026??
- Former president Biden dead in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Former president Biden dead in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria