Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?
GeopoliticaCustomIATecnologia1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 83.1%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto4 giu 23, 12:37 UTC1 dic 27, 04:59 UTC
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Regole
Before the end of 2027, will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets (as appearing in the Manifold Market search for that phrase) be above 50%, at the same time, for at least a week?
- This does not include derivative markets such as "Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?"
- Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Conditional markets (e.g., "if there is a war between AI and humans with at least x billion human deaths, will AI wipe out humanity") do not count towards the resolution criteria.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- *Please note that the "AI summary of creator comment" is the exact opposite of my comment.
- The resolution criteria may soon be edited, but not like that.
