Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto16 mag 24, 02:34 UTC1 gen 31, 04:59 UTC
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It's easy to envision one or two purely-AI-written books, given good marketing, making it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list in the capacity as novelties.
- Therefore, if we want to gauge proliferation of well-written AI-written fiction capable of appealing to audiences not primarily seeking novelty, we want to check for a larger count.
- I have, for this market's purposes, arbitrarily chosen a target of 5.
- Do we expect at least five purely-AI-written books to make it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list before the end of 2030?
- (This could, of course, be confounded by e.g. the NYT establishing a policy of not putting AI-written novels onto the list even if they're selling well.
- If there exist better benchmarks for the same phenomenon, I encourage others to make similar markets resolving against those better benchmarks and link them in the comments here.)
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 54% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031??
- Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: It's easy to envision one or two purely-AI-written books, given good marketing, making it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list in the capacity as novelties.