Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2028-2030 48%In testa tra 8 esiti
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13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Variazione 7g
+3.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto2 apr 25, 01:36 UTC1 gen 51, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.
- This question explores the timeline for when an AI-generated book will independently achieve bestseller status.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve as “YES” if all of the following conditions are met:
- At least 99% of the words generated must authored by AI.
- Overwhelming majority of the core ideas, narrative, content, and exposition are generated by AI.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status??
- Manifold Markets quota 2028-2030 al 48% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status??
- In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2051.
- Come viene liquidato In which year will an AI written book first achieve bestseller status??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Advancements in artificial intelligence have raised the possibility of AI independently creating literary works capable of becoming commercially successful and critically acclaimed.