Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70.1%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto28 mag 26, 23:55 UTC8 apr 33, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsBy 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?
Manifold MarketsRegole
"Humans begin using speech to pass on what they've learned within a lifetime and then immediately become superintelligent (compared to other animals)" and "AI begins using continual learning to pass on what they've learned in-context within RL and deployment and then immediately becomes superintelligent" don't analogize perfectly, but it's close.
- Will ASI happen less than 365 days after a frontier-ish AI company deploys better-than-nothing continual learning?
- N/A if ASI happens first
- Update 2026-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Continual learning is defined as models being able to learn new things at the weights level without being retrained from scratch.
- Key distinguishing features:
- Current training loops (retraining from scratch or from base model) do not qualify
