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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 06:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 56.8%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto17 giu 24, 09:01 UTC1 gen 70, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill USA or China win in a war against each other?
Manifold MarketsWill America lose its war against Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20588)Resolution Criteria
- For the purposes of this question, "Western" countries will be defined as the following:
- Austria Belgium Canada Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United States of America Australia New Zealand
- For the purpose of this question, "engage in a war" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:
- One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.