Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 51.9%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto4 gen 26, 09:35 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I ever make a real world purchase with a crypto currency?
Manifold MarketsWill there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?
Manifold Markets2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028:
- a publicly documented benchmark exists that evaluates physical (non-simulated) household tasks;
- tasks have explicit success/failure criteria;
- results are intended for comparison across different robots or systems (not a single-vendor demo).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
