Will any AI model score 60+ on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index by November 20, 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnologia22g
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 58%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 minuti fa
23 ott 26, 12:01 UTC20 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
KalshiWill an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?
Manifold Marketstop model on artificial analysis is a anthropic model by the end of the month?
Manifold MarketsPaper price index in November 2026
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if, at any point between this market's creation and November 20, 2026, 23:59 UTC, any model shows a score of 60 or higher on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, as displayed on https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models (the whole-number score shown on the site, so a model displayed as "60" counts).
- Where it stands at creation (Oct 23, 2026): the top model is Claude Opus 5.5 (max) at 57.6 (displayed 58).
- Next are Claude Sonnet 5.5 (max) at 56.0, Meta's Muse Wonder Full (max) at 55.8, GPT-6 Astra (max) at 52.7 and Gemini 4 Argon (high) at 52.6.
- So YES needs a model about 2.4 points above today's best.
- Any lab and any reasoning setting counts, including "max" or "with fallback" variants, as long as Artificial Analysis lists it on the leaderboard.
- Scores marked as estimated by Artificial Analysis count if they are displayed on the leaderboard.
