Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 76.1%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto16 ago 26, 21:37 UTC31 dic 26, 23:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point from August 16, 2026, through January 01, 2027 (00:00 CET), an open-weights model holds the #1 position (highest score) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard sorted by "Intelligence Index").
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Note that a model has to be open weights while holding the #1 position, if a model is proprietary on initial release only releasing weights after it's no longer occupying the #1 position it does not count
- Ties: If multiple models are tied for the #1 spot (same numerical index score), and at least one of the tied models is open weights, the market resolves to YES.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 76% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026?
- Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria