Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
IAOne-OffTecnologia4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeCompeting frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods 69.6%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto11 lug 26, 22:59 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWill "A Review of Anthropic's Global Workspace Paper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenRouter AI token usage in October
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
- “Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
- This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
- This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
- “Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability
