Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
IA4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Other 63.3%In testa tra 23 esiti
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65
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto14 mag 24, 02:57 UTC1 gen 31, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegole
To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count).
- The figure must be prominent in the English-speaking world (i.e. all the criteria are English specific).
- The figure must also:
- Have a Wikipedia page
- Have at least 5 news articles centrally mentioning the person from different large media platforms such as the NYT, BBC, Fox News, etc. from before they made claims about AI personhood
- Have a (verified) social media account with 100k+ followers, a TED talk, a prominent role in a film, or a book
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)?
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 63% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)?
- Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own) dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count).