Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?
One-OffIATecnologiaScienza2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 09:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 96.3%
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto5 set 26, 03:54 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsWhich of Anthropic and OpenAI will get more credit for the Navier-Stokes solution, in my judgement?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?
PolymarketSerrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic announce having solved Navier Stokes but actually not have?
Manifold MarketsRegole
The Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem is one of the seven Clay Millennium Prize Problems, and as of 2026, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture.
- This market asks whether Anthropic will publicly claim that one of its AI systems has resolved it.
- Resolves YES if: before 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, Anthropic publicly announces — or a preprint with Anthropic-affiliated authors or Anthropic’s official endorsement presents — a claimed complete resolution of the Clay Mathematics Institute’s Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness problem, with Claude or another Anthropic AI system credited as the primary source of the proof.
- • Either direction counts.
- A claimed proof of global existence and smoothness, OR a claimed counterexample (finite-time blow-up from smooth, finite-energy initial data), in either the R³ or periodic setting as specified in Clay’s official problem statement.
- Both resolve the Millennium problem and both count.
