Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 71%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo3 ott 25, 20:17 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiBy 2028 will an assisted LLM beat the Ender Dragon?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves to YES if I lose a game of chess against an LLM by December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- Only games played with standard chess rules count (not 960, crazyhouse, etc.).
- If the LLM makes an illegal move, it loses automatically.
- The LLM must not have any outside assistance.
- Only games where I am seriously trying to win count, though it would count if I lose due to playing too fast, not paying attention, etc. I won't bet in this market.
- I'm a National Master (~2000 FIDE).
