Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
2030 81.9%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
41
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+4.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto11 ago 24, 16:42 UTC1 feb 31, 07:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
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PolymarketRegole
At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.
- Resolves YES if I lose, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- On which years will I win?
- Some more details: I’m rated around 1900 FIDE, 2100 USCF.
- The game will be played at a rapid time control.
- I’ll select the LLM from the top 3 of the leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), or another benchmark if I believe it to be a better measure of general reasoning capabilities.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
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- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- Manifold Markets quota 2030 al 82% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: At the end of each year, I’ll play a game of chess against an LLM.