Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 60.2% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

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Sì 60.2%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 19 ore fa

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1 ago 26, 16:22 UTC1 gen 29, 02:59 UTC

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Esito24hProbabilità

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If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion.
(Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)
Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description.
My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines).
Some previous comments I did.