Previsione della comunità attuale
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%In testa tra 51 esiti
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Previsori
180
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto1 gen 25, 23:47 UTC1 gen 01, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM from OpenAI beat me in chess by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat me in a game of chess by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s IPO Form S-1 be public by 31 October 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- I'm rated about 1900 FIDE.
- When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them.
- On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation.
- If the models make three illegal moves, they lose.
- Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this.
