Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.9%
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto15 mag 26, 17:35 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will conduct the first orbital launch of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich Scottish Spaceport will see the first successful orbital launch?
Manifold MarketsWho will conduct the last orbital launch of 2026?
Manifold MarketsFrance declares state of emergency by which date?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegole
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that a European-designed and/or European-operated launch vehicle reaches orbit before January 1st 2040, with every propulsive stage used on that flight having previously flown on an earlier spaceflight.
- “European” means the vehicle is primarily developed or operated by an organisation headquartered in Europe, including ESA member states, the UK, EU countries, or European commercial launch companies.
- A flight counts even if the stages are not recovered again afterward, as long as all stages used to reach orbit had already flown before.
- Test flights count if they reach orbit.
- Suborbital flights do not count.
- Resolves NO if no such flight has occurred before January 1st 2040.