Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 57%
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto19 nov 25, 00:05 UTC1 gen 30, 23:56 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI bubble before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI bubble before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if overvaluation of AI related stocks is one significant cause of the next severe and prolonged economic downturn.
- Resolves NO if there is not any AI "bubble pop" or if it does not impact the greater economy in a significant enough way.
- Market will extend until the next depression is clearly established and causes are analyzed by at least 10 reputable publications.
- Classification of a depression will be evaluated based on a majority of reputable news sources and relevant experts.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_depression
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 57% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression??
- Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will an AI bubble pop cause the next depression??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if overvaluation of AI related stocks is one significant cause of the next severe and prolonged economic downturn.