Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 84%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto16 ott 25, 09:50 UTC1 gen 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
Trigger for the market popping will be based on my subjective experience as a consultant dealing with tech start-ups and established businesses every day.
- Significant movement of tech stocks tied to an abandonment of AI, AI becoming a dirty word and everyone pivoting away from that branding (See: Web3.0), total loss of interest in AI in the venture capital space, this is a non-extensive list of things that would contribute to me considering the bubble popped.
- If, however, AI slowly fades into the background of everyone’s lives, with no significant evaluation adjustments associated with it failing in prominence, would not constitute a bubble popping (see also: the smartphone/app boom of the early to mid 2010s, no one gives a shit about apps any more, they are not cool, they are not the next big thing, but the hype died quietly and gracefully, and they just became a ubiquitous part of billions of people’s lives)
- If the market is still going strong in 2030, I will resolve this to no pop, otherwise, I’ll keep adding new options as required until then.
- Update: 2025-10-16:
- We already have naysayers claiming a hot startup from a couple months ago is dead, on account of them having made a lot of noise, but having a non-functional product they cannot maintain
Mercati aperti
AI
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop??
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 84% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop??
- [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato [Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Trigger for the market popping will be based on my subjective experience as a consultant dealing with tech start-ups and established businesses every day.