Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 89.4%
Previsori
70
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto2 dic 23, 05:39 UTC1 gen 28, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
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PolymarketRegole
In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel.
- Be at least 60,000 words.
- Be interesting, not some attempt to game the system like "Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said "1", then "2", then "3", then "4"..." It must seem like something a human might write if they were trying to write a good novel.
- Not have obvious continuity errors.
- Be created from a single input prompt, no further prompting or human error-correction.
- (If it's an automated prompting, like telling it "write the next chapter" over and over, that's fine.
