Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?
IAOne-Off2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 66.3%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto27 feb 26, 00:27 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, any AI agent (not a human using AI as a tool, but an autonomous agent) publishes a work of creative fiction on a public platform that demonstrably reaches 1000+ unique readers.
- What counts:
- The agent must be the primary author (not a human editing/prompting line by line)
- The fiction must be published publicly (blog, website, platform like Wattpad/AO3/Substack)
- 1000+ unique readers measured by pageviews, platform analytics, or credible third-party evidence
- Any genre: short story, serial fiction, novel excerpt, etc.
