Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 63.5%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto10 feb 25, 01:00 UTC1 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?
KalshiHighest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.
- Developed collaboratively by the Center for Al Safety and Scale Al, HLE comprises 3,000 unambiguous and verifiable academic questions contributed by nearly 1,000 subject-matter experts from over 500 institutions across 50 countries.
- The dataset is multimodal, with approximately 10% of the questions requiring both image and text comprehension, while the remaining 90% are text-based.
- As of early 2025, state-of-the-art Al models have demonstrated limited success on the HLE benchmark.
- For instance, OpenAl's 03-mini (high) model achieved an accuracy of 13% when evaluated solely on text-based questions.
- OpenAl's Deep Research agent, which leverages the 03 model for extensive web browsing and data analysis, reached an accuracy of 26.6% on the HLE benchmark.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 64% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028??
- Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.