Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 82.3%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto9 apr 26, 20:48 UTC31 mar 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.
- It will resolve N/A if METR announces the end of time horizons or stops doing them.
- n/a if they don’t release a task that long
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 82% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027??
- Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 marzo 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This Question resolves YES if METR makes it known publicly that an AI model has an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks.