Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale3.5-4 months 24.9%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
76
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto16 gen 26, 20:49 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
This market matches Software Engineering: METR Time Horizon Doubling Time from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the best-fit doubling time for METR-HRS frontier models as of December 31, 2026, computed using the methodology described in the More Info section of the survey (see here).
- If METR releases an updated METR-HRS suite that is a clear successor with comparable difficulty for questions at the same horizon length, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
- Which AI systems count?
