Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther 17.2%In testa tra 11 esiti
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto13 dic 25, 18:22 UTC1 nov 26, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
This market will resolve to the first 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for Grok 4.2 / Grok 4.20.
- If Grok 4.2 is never released, this market resolves N/A. If there is some coding- or other form of specialized version (e.g. Grok 4.20 Code), it will not count for the purpose if this market.
- A model expected to be called Grok 4.20 Heavy (using parallel test-time compute) would not count for this market, but Grok 4.20 Thinking, Grok 4.20 High, or Grok 4.20 xhigh, would all count for the purpose of this market.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 17% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon?
- Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon dovrebbe risolversi il 1 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to the first 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for Grok 4.2 / Grok 4.20.