Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived

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Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived?

Manifold Markets quota No al 83% al 19 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived?

Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived dovrebbe risolversi il 11 dicembre 2040.

Come viene liquidato Will a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived?

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: AGI will be taken from Manifold AI’s definition.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 202924%
• 2028-2.0pt17%
• 202710%

Volume totale

1,8 Mln €

Volume 24h

203,1K €

KALSHI

DeepSeek market share this week

• Above 23.8%90.5%
• Above 22.7%88%
• Above 24.6%62.5%

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+4.3pt52.2%
• Gemini-0.2pt37.5%
• ChatGPT-1.0pt

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt85.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202783%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-3.8pt94%
• October 31-9.1pt75%
• October 24-36.5pt40%

+11 altri esiti

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+3.6pt74.8%
• Anthropic-4.5pt24.2%
• OpenAI+0.3pt1%

+18 altri esiti

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• Anthropic IPO by which date?
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• Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
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• When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?