Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 19 ott 2026, 14:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale2035 69.7%In testa tra 6 esiti
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14
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto16 ott 25, 14:41 UTC2 gen 35, 03:04 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
Manifold MarketsWill ASI be developed 5+ years after AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
Manifold Markets10 years before AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will still be less mainstream than global warming was in 2015
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegole
A new highly-detailed operationalization of AGI has been proposed by Hendrycks et al. based on the standard that "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult" (www.agidefinition.ai/).
- Their definition is inspired by Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory and calculate a model’s “AGI Score” as a composite of ten equally-weighted cognitive categories.
- GPT-4 is judged to score 27% according to the definition, and GPT-5 is scored at 58%.
- This market resolves YES for all years that lie AFTER the first date when an AI system, with an AGI Score eventually judged to be above 95%, is deployed and accessible to customers external to the AI developer for commercial or consumer purposes.
- The score would either need to be judged by the authors, or by a third party in a manner credibly commensurate with the original evaluations of GPT-4 and GPT-5.
- The score would need to be announced within 6 months of model release.