Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticaMiddle East22gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 88.9%
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21
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto31 lug 26, 03:43 UTC1 ott 26, 00:00 UTC
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KalshiUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
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Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.
- A ceasefire counts even if it later collapses.
- The question is whether one takes effect inside the window - not whether it holds.
- RESOLUTION SOURCES (priority order):
- English Wikipedia, "2026 Iran war" - whether the article records a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect within the window
- Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com)
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.