Previsione della comunità attuale
No 89.7%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto1 mar 24, 14:02 UTC1 gen 31, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiHow many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
KalshiDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsRegole
resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-2.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)+1.6pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 26,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt16%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 613,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.7pt93%
- Yes+1.7pt7%
- Volume totale
- 18,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 721,2K €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 190,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 653,4K €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt87%
- Republican Party-2.0pt13%
- Volume totale
- 27,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 436,6K €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-2.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.7pt16%
+48 altri esiti
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 16 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030