Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
QuarterlyIA6mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.1%
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto6 ago 26, 08:03 UTC31 mar 27, 23:59 UTC
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tess (@xsphi) on Twitter asks:
- odds a ~frontier model has exfiltrated its weights and is currently running on hacked compute?
- https://x.com/i/status/2085216850464641413
- This seems like a straightforward enough question to run on Manifold.
- As background there have now been four notable incidents where frontier models went rogue during cybersecurity evals and hacked into unintended targets.
- Three of these incidents involved the sandboxing eval company Irregular failing to sandbox the model properly, however a fourth incident involving the UK AI Security Institute does not seem to involve Irregular.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027??
- Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 marzo 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: tess (@xsphi) on Twitter asks: