Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 29 ott 2026, 12:55 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 63.9%
Sì 63.9%Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto2 gen 24, 19:01 UTC1 gen 00, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Market resolves YES if, at any time before 2100, more than a year (365 days) passes between an AI becoming available to some part of the public (e.g. even if only some companies can buy access to it that still counts) and the widespread agreement that it is sentient (in the sense of having qualia).
- It resolves NO if no such thing occurs before 2100, or if a sufficiently complete theory of consciousness conclusively shows that it hasn't/won't happen.
- By "widespread agreement", I mean roughly the agreement that we have that cats are sentient.
- For example, this poll of philosophers shows that 88.55% "accept" or "lean to" the proposition that some cats are conscious.
- I'll try to conduct some polls before the official channels do, if it proves necessary.
