Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeJudge David J. Porter 96%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto8 set 25, 18:37 UTC8 set 27, 18:23 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
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KalshiWill Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?
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KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 220,4K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-11.0pt40%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 105,1K €
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 42,3K €
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets quota Judge David J. Porter al 96% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? dovrebbe risolversi il 8 settembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria