Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeMoonbase 51.3%
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo25 mar 26, 05:07 UTC25 mar 36, 05:02 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill California high-speed rail use Siemens trains?
Manifold MarketsWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsCalifornia High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
PolymarketRegole
Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph for SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- Related: @/EvanDaniel/which-is-first-crewed-starships-to
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 944,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
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- 620K €
- Volume 24h
- 536K €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume totale
- 514,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 428,7K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail??
- Manifold Markets quota Moonbase al 51% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail??
- Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail? dovrebbe risolversi il 25 marzo 2036.
- Come viene liquidato Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.