Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Google (98.3%)
Risolto: 2 ott 2026, 01:08
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 2 ott 2026, 12:34 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Anthropic0.4%
OpenAI0.4%
Google98.3%
SpaceXAI0.4%
Others0.4%
Vinta
Persa
Persa
Persa
Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
PolymarketChatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- Source of Truth: This market will resolve based on the official "Text Arena - Overall" leaderboard standings of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena, hosted at Hugging Face Chatbot Arena or Arena AI.
- Timing: The standings will be evaluated based on the leaderboard state on October 1, 2026.
- If the live site is down, the most recent update or snapshot around that date will be used.
- Winning Lab: Resolution is determined by the organization/developer of the model ranked #1 overall.
- Ties: In the event of an exact tie in Elo score at the #1 spot, the model listed first (occupying the top row) in the default leaderboard view will determine the winning lab.
