Previsione della comunità attuale
United States of America 52.7%In testa tra 20 esiti
Previsori
84
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto10 gen 24, 10:07 UTC31 ott 32, 18:29 UTC
Trend
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsOn which year will China first land a person on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsTrump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRegole
If there's a mission with more than 1 person from more than 1 country, the market will consider which of them first step on the surface of our moon.
- If that person holds multiple countries' citizenship, then it resolves to whatever country's space organization sent that person.
- If even that is ambiguous, in case of a joint/collaborative effort, then it resolves to the birth country of that person.
- By landing, it is meant that the person is alive after landing.
- It will not count if there's an explosion upon touchdown and the person dies, for example.
- It does not have to be a perfect landing.
Mercati aperti
SpaceLIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No74.1%
- Yes25.9%
- Volume totale
- 303,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 298,8K €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt97%
- Google2%
- OpenAI1%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 46,8K €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 202864%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt44%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 944,9K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- SpaceX+3.5pt51.5%
- Anthropic-3.7pt47.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt1%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture-2.0pt40.6%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt36.6%
- No solution by Dec 31, 2027+1.0pt16.8%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic+3.0pt85.2%
- Google-1.8pt6.9%
- OpenAI-1.9pt5.9%
+18 altri esiti
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- #3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which country would land the next person on the moon??
- Manifold Markets quota United States of America al 53% al 13 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which country would land the next person on the moon??
- Which country would land the next person on the moon? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 ottobre 2032.
- Come viene liquidato Which country would land the next person on the moon??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: If there's a mission with more than 1 person from more than 1 country, the market will consider which of them first step on the surface of our moon.