Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
ChainlinkOne-OffSpaceIATecnologiaPolitica2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 19 lug 2026, 16:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2
Previsione della comunità attualeIn-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
32
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato l’altro ieri
Obsoleto28 ott 24, 14:201 gen 29, 4:59
Trend
100%
0%
0%
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 202610%
Trend del volume
$75016 lug4g di dati19 lug
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Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/
- [link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
- All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
- Too early = NO.
- Added clarifications:
- Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.