Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 15:20 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeBefore 2028 87.7%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto13 giu 26, 15:48 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.
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KalshiRegole
Beat = get statistically significant better scores (p = 0.05) than the best human on a tournament on Metaculus
- Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Superforecasters are allowed to use the best AI models when competing against forecasting bots.