Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
<2035 62%In testa tra 7 esiti
<2035 62%Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto5 giu 24, 02:26 UTC2 gen 35, 04:59 UTC
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Regole
By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? Resolves Yes on all later years.
- Qualifying events:
- Any arrangement (contractors, national labs etc.) under which the US government employees have the right to control what queries are run on the model.
- Any international collaboration where the US retains model query veto rights, but does not include international collaboration where the US is a stakeholder having e.g. a minority vote.
- If the US government seizes control over the current most FLOP-intensive pre-existing AI this qualifies.
- Any unanticipated event which clearly satisfies the spirit of this question
