When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

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Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??

Manifold Markets quota Q3-Q4 2024 al 89.2% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.

Come viene liquidato When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: "Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-4.2pt86%
• Anthropic+4.9pt13%
• OpenAI+0.5pt1%

+18 altri esiti

Volume totale

3,2 Mln €

Volume 24h

130,4K €

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+0.5pt30%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.8pt19%
• $2.0–$2.25T+0.3pt19%

+7 altri esiti

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+7.6pt56.9%
• Gemini-7.4pt30.6%
• ChatGPT-0.9pt

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202792.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt88.5%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+5.0pt83%
• December 15,+8.0pt82%
• November 30,-1.0pt64%

+9 altri esiti

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+4.0pt55.1%
• Google-5.0pt36.7%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 altri esiti

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