Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeQ3-Q4 2024 89.2%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto2 ago 23, 23:22 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
Trend
0.5%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiRegole
"Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.
- But the question will resolve positively if it shows matching or better performance on at least 3 benchmarks that are reasonably standard at the time and somewhat general purpose (not specialized on maths, coding or some other narrow class of reasoning).
- Open-source means that both the code and the weights are openly available, regardless of the license.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??
- Manifold Markets quota Q3-Q4 2024 al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??
- When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: "Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.