Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
2025 100%In testa tra 6 esiti
2025 100%Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto18 gen 24, 01:09 UTC2 gen 30, 00:35 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Manifold MarketsWill AI get IMO Gold by 2025/Wipe out Humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?
Manifold MarketsThe legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegole
A year resolves yes, if any AI program can get enough points to win at least bronze on the International Mathematics Olympiad of that year.
- The years are resolved completely independent of each other.
- If a neutral party (e.g. from the AIMO prize) judges AI performance in this respect, I will defer to them.
- Otherwise, I will judge myself.
- If I judge, my main requirements are that the AI was written and trained (if applicable) before the IMO, though it need not be released before the IMO.
- The AI should produce a proof that can be checked within a reasonable time by either a human or a proof assistant (e.g. Lean).
