What will happen in Russia around elections of 2026?
GeopoliticaOne-OffElezionePoliticaRussia / Ucraina
Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoDati di risoluzione non verificati: United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)
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Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 11 ott 2026, 11:31 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yabloko candidates are votable in day of elections97.1%
Major disruptions because of massive anti Putin/United Russia/war voting.0%
New: major part of people in Russia believe elections were falsified such that result changes (winner changes or at least UR doesn't get majority)0%
United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450)100%
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Moods in the society suprise me again and again.
- Yabloko was initially allowed into elections, got massive support from young people, and even now there still are individual candidates from Yabloko even though the party list was rejected.
- Blocks of everything in internet, blocks for VPN connections on major Russian platforms, whitelists, full shutdowns.
- Ukrainian strikes on oil and marketplaces, gas shortages.
- Speeches of before apolitical or pro Putin people.
- All that is more than I expected.
